NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Trade Chart Comparison
Compare NFL draft pick trades with the Jimmy Johnson chart from the early 1990s and a flatter Fitzgerald-Spielberger style model. Side totals and differences show in both systems.
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The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator totals draft pick value on each side of a trade using two published-style models: the Jimmy Johnson chart from the early 1990s and a Fitzgerald-Spielberger style surplus-value curve dated to a 2018 approximation on this site. Enter comma-separated pick numbers, optionally suffix a future year with +1 or +2, and compare side totals plus the balance in points for each model.
Compare the value of a draft pick trade
Draft trades swap pick capital for pick capital, and fans often ask whether the price to move up or down is fair on paper. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator sums chart points for every pick listed on side A and side B, then reports the difference as balance favoring side A or side B under each model.
Positive balance favors side A; negative balance favors side B.
Each pick must be an integer from 1 to 224, matching seven rounds of 32 teams in the Johnson table scope. Empty sides are rejected so the tool never returns a meaningless zero-zero trade. The result panel lists per-model side totals and the gap between them so steep-chart and flat-chart assumptions stay visible in one view.
Trades reported on draft night often list multiple swaps on each side. Enter every pick a team receives on side A and every pick on side B, separated by commas, without netting picks that cancel in real life unless you intentionally want a netted comparison. The calculator sums what you list; it does not infer conditional pick protections from text notes.
Choose a value model
Jimmy Johnson (early 1990s). The chart built when Jimmy Johnson ran the Dallas Cowboys front office assigns steep value to top picks. Pick 1 is worth 3000 points on the table loaded from Pro-Football-Reference; value drops quickly through the first round. Many media trade grades still reference this curve.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger (2018 approximation). Surplus-value research by Chris Fitzgerald and Josh Spielberger, extended in work by analysts such as Mitchel Lichtman and Scott Spratt, produces a flatter curve than Johnson. This site applies a documented power-law approximation (2687.682 × pick^−0.4167, rounded to one decimal), not an NFL club internal sheet.
Rich Hill (modern flatter model). Rich Hill and collaborators published another surplus-value curve that is flatter still at the top in some pick ranges. That Hill curve is not computed on this page yet; only Johnson and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation run in the calculator today.
Both implemented models appear on every trade evaluation so you can see how steep versus flat assumptions change the verdict.
Understand why the models disagree
The Johnson chart reflects 1990s trade practice when teams paid heavily to move into the top five. Contemporary analytics find top picks remain valuable but not as disproportionately so once contract cost and hit-rate data enter the picture.
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger style curve therefore reports a smaller gap between pick 5 and pick 20 than Johnson does, which can flip whether a two-for-one offer wins on paper.
Neither chart is a leak of a current front-office board. Clubs keep private boards with medical flags, need-based premiums, and contract math. These public curves are benchmarks for media and fans comparing reported trade packages, not live offer sheets.
Value a trade of pick 5 for picks 12 and 45
Example: side A gives pick 5; side B gives picks 12 and 45 in the current draft year. Jimmy Johnson
| Pick | Points |
|---|---|
| 5 | 1700 |
| 12 | 1200 |
| 45 | 450 |
Side A total: 1700. Side B total: 1200 + 450 = 1650. Balance: 1700 − 1650 = +50 (side A ahead by 50 points on the Johnson chart).
Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation
| Pick | Points |
|---|---|
| 5 | 1374.4 |
| 12 | 954.3 |
| 45 | 550.2 |
Side A total: 1374.4. Side B total: 954.3 + 550.2 = 1504.5. Balance: 1374.4 − 1504.5 = −130.1 (side B ahead by about 130 points on the flat curve).
The same physical trade looks slightly favorable to the team moving down from pick 5 under Johnson and favorable to the team acquiring pick 5 plus extra capital under the modern approximation. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator prints both totals so neither story hides the other.
Discount future picks
Future-year picks carry uncertainty: the slot may move with record, and the player pool is unknown. Common media convention shifts the pick number forward 32 slots per year, about one round in a 32-team league, before lookup. Enter 26+1 for pick 26 in next year's draft.
The engine adds 32 to the slot for each future year, caps effective pick at 224, and may apply a small extra discount when the shifted slot would overflow the table. A warning line appears when any future suffix is present.
Two years out adds 64 slots: pick 10+2 looks up as pick 74 before values apply. The +32 rule is an approximation, not a league rulebook clause, but it matches how many trade articles frame future capital.
Read the value chart
Pick numbers 1 through 224 map to point values in the Johnson JSON table sourced from Pro-Football-Reference. Round boundaries cluster steep drops on the Johnson chart; the Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation smooths those steps with a continuous curve. Use the breakdown list on the result panel for per-model side totals and the A minus B difference.
Pick 1 at 3000 and pick 224 at 2 anchor the Johnson scale on this site. Mid-round picks differ less between models than top-five picks, which is where trade debates concentrate.
On the Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation, pick 1 lands at about 2687.7 points in the site formula, below Johnson's 3000. By pick 100 the modern curve assigns about 394 points where Johnson lists 100, which is why package deals with several day-two picks can look better on the flat model even when Johnson still prefers the single high choice.
Day-three picks in the 190 to 224 range cluster at low Johnson integers while the power-law tail still assigns fractional value on the approximation. Those late swaps rarely headline trades, but the dual totals explain why analytics writers quote different "winners" on minor pick exchanges.
FAQ
What is the Jimmy Johnson draft chart?
The Jimmy Johnson draft chart is a pick-value table from the early 1990s Dallas Cowboys era, assigning point values to each draft slot for trade comparison. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator loads pick 1 at 3000 points and follows the Pro-Football-Reference table through pick 224. Media outlets still cite it when grading draft-day trades.
What is the Fitzgerald-Spielberger model?
The Fitzgerald-Spielberger model refers to surplus-value draft research that produces flatter pick curves than the Johnson chart. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator uses a 2018-style site approximation of that curve, rounded to one decimal per pick, rather than a proprietary NFL team sheet. Top picks score lower relative to day-two picks than on Johnson.
Is the Rich Hill chart available here?
The Rich Hill surplus-value curve is another modern flatter model discussed in analytics circles, but it is not computed on this page yet. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator currently runs Jimmy Johnson and the Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation only. Comparisons involving Hill values require an external source until that model is added.
Do NFL teams use these exact numbers?
NFL clubs maintain private models and adjust for player need, medical information, and contract economics. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator exposes public educational curves for fans and writers, not leaked front-office boards. Treat outputs as structured comparisons, not predictions of what a team will accept.
How are future picks entered?
List picks as comma-separated integers from 1 to 224 and add a +year suffix for a future draft year, such as 48+1 for pick 48 next year. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator shifts the slot forward 32 picks per year before lookup. Multiple future picks can appear on either side of the trade.
Why does the same trade flip winners between models?
The same trade flips winners between models because Johnson overweights early first-round slots relative to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger approximation. Moving down from pick 5 for picks 12 and 45 shows side A ahead by 50 Johnson points but side B ahead by about 130 on the flat curve in the worked example above. Steeper charts favor consolidating capital; flatter charts favor volume.
What pick range does the calculator support?
The calculator supports picks 1 through 224, seven rounds times 32 teams in the Johnson table scope. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator rejects pick numbers outside that range. Compensatory picks and traded slots still use their overall slot number when you know it.
Can compensatory picks be valued?
Compensatory picks can be valued if you enter their overall slot number between 1 and 224. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator does not look up comp assignment rules; it only maps the number you provide to chart points. Late compensatory picks behave like other late slots on both curves.
How should balance points be interpreted?
Balance points should be interpreted as the gap between side totals, not as a cash price or player rating. The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator labels which side is ahead under each model. Small gaps may be noise on Johnson given integer tables; larger gaps under both models suggest a clearer lean.
Closing summary
The NFL Draft Pick Value Calculator compares trade sides with the early-1990s Jimmy Johnson chart and a flatter Fitzgerald-Spielberger style approximation, applies a +32 pick-slot shift per future year, and shows totals plus balance for each system. The pick 5 versus picks 12 and 45 example shows how steep and modern valuations diverge.
Rich Hill style curves are noted for context but are not computed here yet; use the dual-model output as a structured check, not as a club decision sheet.